Cheng's Blog

Climate change has brought dramatic droughts and floods around the world, ruining harvests of important cereal crops and reviving concerns about food security on a warmer planet. Researchers at the U.S. Department of Agriculture are looking at cereal crops at risk and their wild, weedy relatives. The weeds are more resilient under extreme conditions, and seem to be benefiting from climate change, while regular crops suffer.

Plant physiologist Lewis Ziska has been comparing cultivated rice and a weedy red rice relative for several years. The USDA researcher is growing each variety under different temperatures and levels of carbon dioxide. So far, the red rice has flourished under warmer temperatures. It grew faster and produced more seed than the cultivated variety.

“What we have been doing is looking at weedy rice as a unique source of genes that would allow cultivated rice to begin to adapt to still be able to produce very good yields with changes in temperature,” said Ziska.

These environmental growth chambers allow scientists to control heat, humidity and CO2 levels.

“Using these kinds of growth chambers allows us to dial in carbon dioxide concentrations that existed 50 years ago, it allows us to simulate a condition 50 years from now,” Ziska added.

Plant physiologist Lewis Ziska has been comparing cultivated rice and a weedy red rice relative for several years for the USDA

Chamber two simulates today’s conditions. The rice in the center and on the left is regular crop rice. The variety on the right is the weed, already blossoming.

In chamber three, Ziska says, the CO2 level is higher and the temperature is two degrees warmer than today.

“This is normal rice, that I just pick from here,” Ziska explained. “It is a panicle for normal rice, you can see is just starting to flower and starting to produce the seed. Here is the same panicle, everything has been equal, but this is now for the weedy rice. And you can see for the weedy rice how much further along it is.”

And chamber four, four degrees warmer than today, replicates the conditions that scientists say the world could experience in 30 to 50 years. Again the weedy rice did better, but the regular rice had a dramatic decline.

“It tends to become sterile,” noted Ziska. “The flower, the pollen becomes sterile at higher temperatures and as a result of that, the plant may look OK, but you are not going to get any rice seed out of it.”

Ziska notes that regular rice cannot tolerate the wide range of climate conditions that red rice, as an adaptable weed, can. What is more important, he says, is that most cereals have a weedy relative.

“What we are doing is what nature does: we are selecting for the best set of genes, but in this case the best set of genes that would respond to a wide set of circumstances, instead of a very narrow set of circumstances,” Ziska explained.

According to the Department of Agriculture, Thailand, Vietnam, China and the United States are the world’s leading rice producers with four main types of rice traded globally. Ziska says many people around the world depend on rice for their food and livelihoods. “Anywhere from two to three billion people,” Ziska added. “It is the principle, most important cereal in the world.”

Scientist Lewis Ziska hopes to produce a weedy rice seed that can be offered to farmers within the next 3 to 5 years. He still needs to study the red rice under extreme drought and flooding conditions. He believes in a few decades, it could feed a world facing uncertain and extreme climate conditions.

At the White House, U.S. President Barack Obama and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu have held talks on the troubled Israeli-Palestinian peace process. The two leaders issued statements masking what were likely contentious discussions.

The talks came a day after President Obama, in a major policy address on the Middle East, endorsed a solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict based on lines existing before the 1967 Six Day War.

Obama said this must be accompanied by mutually agreed land swaps to ensure secure and recognized borders for both states under any future agreement.

Basing an eventual solution on 1967 borders has long been a U.S. position, shared by international partners, but Mr. Netanyahu reacted angrily to Obama’s high-profile endorsement of it as a starting point for resuming negotiations.

After about a 90-minute delay following intense talks, President Obama and Prime Minister Netanyahu issued statements to reporters.

Calling their discussions “extremely constructive,” Obama said it is possible to shape a deal that allows Israel to secure itself, but also allows it to resolve what he called “a wrenching issue” for both peoples for decades.

President Barack Obama ® meets with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in the Oval Office of the White House, May 20, 2011

But referring to the unity accord between Fatah and Hamas, Obama said he agreed it will be very difficult for Israel to negotiate “in a serious way” with a party that refuses to acknowledge Israel’s right to exist.

“Hamas has been, and is an organization that has resorted to terror, that has refused to acknowledge Israel’s right to exist, it is not a partner for a significant, realistic peace process,” said President Obama. “And so as I said yesterday in the speech, Palestinians are going to have to explain how they can credibly engage in serious peace negotiations in the absence of observing the Quartet principles that have been put forward previously.”

Hamas, which controls Gaza and is linked to the Palestinian Authority in a unity accord, has called the president’s proposals a “total failure,” saying the group will not recognize Israel’s occupation under any circumstances.”

Netanyahu said Israel wants, and would make “generous compromises” for peace, but one based on “basic realities.” He rejected any settlement based on 1967 borders, calling such lines “indefensible,” and made clear Israel will not negotiate with a Palestinian government that includes Hamas.

“Hamas has just attacked you, Mr. President, and the United States, for ridding the world of [Osama] bin Laden,” said Prime Minister Netanyahu. “So Israel obviously cannot be asked to negotiate with a government that is backed by the Palestinian version of al-Qaida. I think President [Mahmoud] Abbas has a simple choice. He has to decide if he negotiates or keeps his pact with Hamas or makes peace with Israel.”

Netanyahu said the Palestinian refugee issue will have to be resolved in the context of a Palestinian state, but “certainly not in the borders of Israel.”

The Israeli leader said while there are differences “here and there,” there is what he called an overall direction for the U.S. and Israel to pursue what he called a “peace that is defensible” between Israel and Palestinians.

President Obama said he and Netanyahu also discussed changes sweeping the Middle East, and agreed there is a moment of opportunity that can be seized as a consequence of the Arab Spring, but acknowledged there are significant perils as well.

The president said he provided additional details to Netanyahu about U.S. efforts to pressure Syrian President Bashar al-Assad on political reform, and reiterated the U.S. position that it would be unacceptable for Iran to possess a nuclear weapon.

While U.S. President Barack Obama has announced his broad vision for American policy in the Middle East, questions remain on his strategy for one country still wracked by political uncertainty, Yemen.

Yemeni President Ali Abdullah Saleh has been a consistent U.S. partner in the fight against a major al-Qaida group based in his country. But he faces a fight for his very survival as he refuses the demands of anti-government activists and fellow Arab states to transfer power. Some analysts say Washington now must convince the people of Yemen that the United States is not pursuing just its own goals in their country as it works with an unpopular ruler to fight militants.

As the brushfire of popular uprisings simmers in some areas of the Middle East, an already precarious situation in Yemen has become even more unstable.

Analysts say months of anti-government demonstrations have offered al-Qaida an opening in the fragile state torn by tribal allegiances, a rebellion in the north and a secessionist movement in the south.

On Thursday, U.S. President Barack Obama urged his Yemeni counterpart, Ali Abdullah Saleh, to comply with demands to transfer power. But at the same time, Obama acknowledged that Saleh is a “friend” of America.

Yemen’s President Ali Abdullah Saleh (C) attends a rally held by pro-government supporters in Sana’a, May 13, 2011 (file photo)

Without President Saleh’s support over the years, analysts say Washington would have had a tough time going after members of the Yemeni-based group al-Qaida in the Arabian Peninsula.

Frederick Kagan is the director of the Critical Threats Project at the American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research.

Kagan says the U.S. government now faces an even tougher sell convincing Yemenis who want political change that a fight against militants is critical to them.

“Al-Qaida is not the number one problem facing the Yemenis these days,” explained Kagan. “And we’re going to have to work on bringing interest together. And that means we’re going to have to do things for the Yemenis that aren’t directly related to killing al-Qaida.”

For many Yemenis, their biggest concern is poverty, not terrorists bent on attacking the West. Detractors of Saleh have seized on this issue, saying the president overstates the terror threat and his role in fighting it in order to keep the backing of his foreign allies.

Former U.S. Ambassador to Yemen Edmund Hull says that the United States must appease the Yemeni public’s concerns in order to successfully fight al-Qaida there.

“The whole public diplomacy of counterterrorism is extremely important – how what we do is not seen purely as serving U.S. interests, but serving broader interests,” said Hull. “You have to get that right if you’re going to have long-term success. And I think those are areas for improvement and areas that we need to be working on.”

U.S. officials say Washington’s total assistance to Yemen was more than $300 million in 2010′s fiscal year. And while Ambassador Hull says this investment is significant, he believes Washington needs to staff more highly trained civilian workers in the country to complement the counterterrorism military side.

U.S. military officials refuse to talk on the record about operations in Yemen, but Yemeni authorities have acknowledged that U.S. drones are flying over their country. Security experts also say U.S. Special Forces and intelligence agents are most likely assisting Yemeni security forces in targeting al-Qaida.

Jeffery Dressler is a senior analyst at the Institute for the Study of War in Washington. He specializes in the U.S. strategy in Afghanistan and Pakistan. Dressler says he sees similarities in the U.S. involvement in Yemen with that of the situation in Pakistan.

Both sovereign countries have remote, mountainous regions with fiercely independent groups of people. It is in these areas in Pakistan and Yemen that al-Qaida and other militants are hiding.

Dressler says he foresees Washington’s use of unmanned aircraft to remain popular for years to come in these situations.

“It’s sort of the option of last resort frankly,” Dressler noted. “I mean, they’re effective, but they’re only effective to a point. They can’t eradicate these threats. They can’t really prevent these groups from operating. But they can make it more difficult for them to operate.”

Several days after U.S. Special Forces shot and killed al-Qaida founder and leader Osama bin Laden in Pakistan, media reports said the United States launched a missile strike in Yemen targeting a radical U.S.-born cleric with al-Qaida links.

Authorities say Anwar al-Awlaki is a high-ranking member of al-Qaida in the Arabian Peninsula.

The May 5 strike reportedly missed him, but is said to have killed two other suspected al-Qaida militants.

Katherine Zimmerman is an expert with the American Enterprise Institute on al-Qaida and its associated movements in the Gulf of Aden.

Zimmerman says she does not think these so-called successes in killing militants with unmanned aircraft justify relying on them in the fight against extremism.

“Drone strikes don’t work,” said Zimmerman. “We’ve seen that in Yemen before where al-Qaida was greatly and severely disabled when the U.S. took out its leadership in [the] early 2000s, but it was able to reemerge and reestablish itself.”

Zimmerman says she believes U.S. efforts must focus on helping Yemen enjoy a stable government and economic improvements. Otherwise, it will remain a breeding ground for militancy.

And while Washington says it is reaching out to Yemen’s opposition even as it seeks to remove President Saleh – a U.S. ally – from power, analysts say U.S. actions ultimately will speak louder than words for the people of Yemen.

Former International Monetary Fund (IMF) chief Dominique Strauss-Kahn of France has been released on bail from a New York jail cell, after being charged and then held for attempted rape. But only one day after his resignation, the debate over who should replace him has already begun.

Despite pleading innocence, the images of Dominique Strauss-Kahn in handcuffs was unbecoming of the leader of the global banking institution.

Guilty or not, many – including U.S. Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner say the damage has already been done. “Of course, I can’t comment on the case, but he’s obviously not in a position to run the IMF,” he said.

The race to find a successor is underway. But political analyst Daniel Gros says finding a leader that can satisfy all of the IMF’s 185 member countries will not be easy.

“Everybody in the world will, of course, be competing now, but we have to realize that the emerging countries also have widely different interests. Think about China versus India versus Brazil. So it will be very difficult to find somebody who serves the political interests of any one group,” said Gros.

A combination photo of possible successors if Dominique Strauss-Kahn, the head of the International Monetary Fund, leaves the IMF. They are (top L-R) Mohamed El-Erian, Stanley Fischer of Israel, Gordon Brown of Britain, Kemal Dervis of Turkey, Peer Steinbrueck of Germany, (bottom L-R) Montek Singh Ahluwalia of India, Christine Lagarde of France, Agustin Carstens of Mexico, Trevor Manuel of South Africa and Axel Weber of Germany, May 15, 2011

Since its founding, the top job at the IMF has traditionally been filled by a European. But there is growing opposition to that arrangement. Beijing insists the IMF’s future leader should reflect the growing clout of developing nations.

And the list of potential candidates is long: They include Zhu Min, deputy governor of the People’s Bank of China; Agustin Carstens, Mexico’s central bank governor; and South Africa’s former finance chief, Trevor Manuel.

But Owen Barder at the Center for Global Development sees difficulty for non-European candidates. “It will be easier for Europe to come up with a single candidate who they want to nominate than it will be for the emerging markets to get an agreement. They don’t necessarily have the mechanisms and the history of nominating a single candidate. So the danger is, that Europeans, because they’re used to doing it, will find someone very quickly and try to push them forward as a fait accompli,” said Barder.

Early European favorites include Axel Weber, the former president of Germany’s Bundesbank and French Finance Minister Christine Lagarde. Right now, economist Jacob Kirkegaard says the frontrunner status belongs to Lagarde.

“Because one, she’s a very skillful policymaker. She’s got a lot of experience, both in Europe obviously, but also at the G20 level. And she has, for better or worse, the advantage – she would represent a new face to the IMF and international organizations because she would be the first woman to run such an organization,” stated Kirkegaard.

Ultimately, all sides agree the choice must be based on merit.

“It could be a European, it could be someone from an emerging market or even an American — the point again being that you should really focus on the fact that you need a credible, well respected, policy heavyweight,” added Kirkegaard.

Together, the United States and European nations hold more than 50 percent of the voting power at the IMF. The U.S. has yet to take a position on who can best fill the vacuum left behind by Strauss-Kahn’s stunning departure.

Middle East analysts say U.S. President Barack Obama’s speech on the uprisings in the Middle East and North Africa was effective in aligning American policy with the sweeping changes in the region. However, they also say his remarks on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict could prove to be a major distraction from his overall message.

As Arab protests continue to sweep across the Middle East, analysts say the primary goals of President Obama’s speech were to call for political and economic changes, while standing behind the peaceful protestors and against violence.

Referring to the uprisings in Egypt and Tunisia, Obama noted that so far this year two leaders have stepped down in the region and said more may follow as demonstrators demand their basic rights.

“The Arab Spring, as we call it, is changing the region and he wants to make sure that people in the region know and that the American people know, that the United States supports the changes that are occurring in the region,” said Graeme Bannerman, a scholar at the Middle East Institute.

Obama announced financial incentives to support modernization and stability in Egypt and Tunisia. That brought a positive reaction from Dalya in Cairo. “He understands what we are going through,” said Dalya. “He is trying to do his best.”

U.S. President Barack Obama receives a standing ovation after a speech about the United States’ policy on the Middle East and North Africa at the State Department in Washington, May 19, 2011.

President Obama says the people of Syria have shown their courage in peacefully demanding a transition to democracy, while the government in Damascus is brutally cracking down on the protestors.

Obama bluntly said Syrian President Bashar al-Assad now faces a choice to either lead that transition “or get out of the way.”

“But if they can continue to protest, then I think the clock is inexorably ticking to the point where U.S. policy will be – it is time for you to go – Mr. Assad,” said Robert Satloff, executive director of the Washington Institute.

Perhaps drawing the most attention were Obama’s remarks on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, as Arab protests have come to the borders of the Jewish state.

For the first time a U.S. president said publicly the borders of Israel and a future state of Palestine should be based on lines that existed before the 1967 Middle East war, with mutually agreed land swaps with the Palestinians. Such a move could leave Jewish settlements in the West Bank outside of Israel.

Israelis and Palestinians reacted to the speech Friday in Jerusalem.

CHAIM: “Ignore Mr. Obama. Simple, we are an independent, sovereign state.”
HAJIR: “What happened to us before Obama and what has happened to us since Obama, nothing has changed. Actually things are going backward.”

President Obama also called for the full withdrawal of Israeli military forces from the West Bank. Analysts say being so specific about sensitive issues in the Israeli-Palestinian peace process could draw attention away from his overall message of supporting peaceful change.

“I do think the president injected the seeds of a major distraction from that by delving in as detailed and provocative way as he did in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict,” said Analyst Robert Satloff.

As the Arab uprisings continue to transform the region, analysts say President Obama’s strategy will likely evolve over time. They add that the U.S. and other countries will have to adapt their policies to reflect the changes continuing to roil the Middle East.

A New York City judge has granted bail to Dominique Strauss-Kahn as the former International Monetary Fund chief awaits arraignment and trial on charges of sexual assault. He is accused of attacking a maid in a New York hotel.

Judge Michael Obus set Dominique Strauss-Kahn’s bail at $1 million, plus a $5 million bond secured against a family home. The court had denied an earlier request for bail. In addition, Strauss-Kahn must submit to electronic surveillance. A private security firm will provide armed guards to prevent possible flight. He will stay with his wife in a New York apartment.

“We’re very relieved. We’re very happy. We can now focus on some other aspects of the case,” said Defense attorney William Taylor.

Manhattan District Attorney Cyrus Vance, Jr. said a grand jury has returned a seven count indictment against Strauss-Kahn based on evidence provided by New York authorities.

“Under American law, these are extremely serious charges. Based on the grand jury’s determination, the evidence supports the commission of non-consensual, forced sexual acts. The defendant was indicted on all of the charges presented to the grand jury,” Vance said.

An NYPD prisoner movement slip for former IMF chief Dominique Strauss-Kahn

Those charges include a criminal sexual act and attempted rape. Strauss-Kahn denies the allegations. His supporters in France say he is the victim of character assassination by political opponents to preclude his candidacy for the presidency of his native France.

Strauss-Kahn resigned his IMF position late Wednesday, saying he wants to devote all of his energy to proving his innocence. His deputy, John Lipsky, an American, will serve as acting managing IMF director. But European countries are competing against fast growing economies elsewhere to name a permanent successor.

German Chancellor Angela Merkel says developing economies have a legitimate claim, but only in the medium term. “In the present situation, when we have significant problems with the euro and the IMF is very much involved there, there are arguments to propose a European candidate and support him in the international community,” she said.

China’s position on a successor coincides with that of countries such as Brazil and South Africa. “We have always believed that the IMF should continue to push forward for reform, and should choose a better senior official of the IMF based on fairness and transparency. In principle we believe developing countries should be better represented at senior levels,” said Chinese Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Jiang Yu.

Strauss-Kahn’s arraignment is set for June 6. He faces as much as 25 years in prison if convicted.